Archives: Market Commentary

Last Year’s Stock Market Rally Extends into 2021

Last year’s stock market rally was an explosive recovery that saw the major market averages set new highs. We’re well into 2021, and the major market averages have continued to push to new heights.

Figure 1 highlights the six longest running bull markets since WWII and compares them to the performance of the current bull run. Through the end of July, the current bull market, as measured by the broad-based S&P 500 Index3, takes the top spot. It exceeds the early performance of the long-running bull market that was born out of the 2008 financial crisis.

 

Before we get carried away and extrapolate today’s upward move, let’s also point out that the nearly 10-year bull market of the 1990s got off the ground slowly. In other words, let’s state something we already know, but bears repeating. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

 

A review of the major themes driving stocks

If we step back and look at what is driving stocks, we can’t credit just one variable. Instead, several tailwinds have been responsible for the strong rally. These include:

1. The Fed has provided super easy money. Interest rates are extremely low, which encourages investors to seek out stocks for more acceptable returns. The Fed has also been buying about $120 billion in bonds each month, which pumps additional cash into the financial system.
2. The strong economic recovery has been a tailwind. It’s expensive, and it raises the federal deficit, but strong fiscal stimulus puts cash into the hands of consumers, which helps drive economic activity.The U.S. BEA reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest measure of goods and services, expanded at an annual pace of 6.5% in Q2, up from 6.3% in Q1. Consumer spending was an important component in the robust reports.In addition, the vaccines have accelerated the reopening. Notably, spending in Q2 was strong for service-related businesses tied to activities outside the home. The U.S. BEA reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest measure of goods and services, expanded at an annual pace of 6.5% in Q2, up from 6.3% in Q1. Consumer spending was an important component in the robust reports.In addition, the vaccines have accelerated the reopening. Notably, spending in Q2 was strong for service-related businesses tied to activities outside the home.
3. Plus, the strong economic recovery has led to huge gains in corporate profits, which have far exceeded analyst forecasts in recent quarters, according to Refinitiv. As economic growth seems set to moderate in the third quarter, we’ll likely see profit growth moderate. However, analysts surveyed by Refinitiv continue to boost earnings forecasts in Q3 and Q4, which lends support to equities.

Looking at it as an equation, low interest rates + strong corporate profits tied to upbeat economic growth have led to a series of new highs in the major market indexes.

Yet, markets are never without risk. While there have been no major recent corrections, the risk we might see some type of pullback later in the year can’t be dismissed.

Economic growth is expected to continue this year, barring a sharp uptick in new Covid cases and related restrictions, which could create stock market volatility.

Inflation has been much higher than the Federal Reserve and many analysts had expected. If the surge in inflation isn’t temporary and proves to be more persistent than expected, we could see the Fed hit the monetary brakes faster than most anticipate.

For now, the Fed’s own projections released in June suggest the central bank may be penciling in two small rate hikes in 2023. Even if that occurs, rates would remain low by historical standards.

Long-term perspective

Except for the 1987 stock market crash, bear markets (a 20% or greater decline in the S&P 500 Index), have been centered around recessions, according to S&P 500 data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and Yahoo Finance. That streak has been in place since the mid-1960s.

Still, while long-term financial plans don’t eliminate risk, they help manage risk and take market volatility into account.

Following the big gains in stocks, it’s important to add that the investment plan is also designed to keep investors from taking on too much risk, when big market gains sometimes encourage individuals to dive too heavily into stocks.

If you have any questions or want to discuss any other matters, please feel free to reach out to your advisor.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

House Price Explosion

The pandemic has created long-lasting distortions in the economy. Fiscal stimulus checks and generous jobless benefits have left many folks with extra cash. We have seen that play out in strong sales for home improvement and autos.

While distancing restrictions that had been in place have the travel industry, that may change amid pent-up demand and falling Covid cases. A shortage of rental cars has sent prices into the stratosphere in some locales.

 

One industry that has been met with unexpected demand is housing. Surging sales and the lack of supply have created bidding wars around the nation.

According to the National Home Price Index, prices are at a record level(blue line)—Figure 1. In addition, the acceleration in prices, which began in the middle of 2020, is up at the fastest pace on record (red line). The survey began in 1987.

In another survey, the National Association of Realtors said that the median price of an existing home hit a record $350,300 in May, up 23.6%from May 2020. The median price of a new home in May is up 18% versus
one year ago to a record $374,400, according to the U.S. Census.

Yet, as any realtor will tell you, the three most important things in real estate are location, location, location. What is happening in one neighborhood may not be mirrored in another, but nationally prices have soared amid a shortage of inventory.

Making sense out of the madness

Rising prices can’t be pinned on one thing. There is plenty going on including:

1. Mortgage rates fell to record lows. The 30-year fixed mortgage fell below 3% last July, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. It held below 3% until March and has hovered near that mark since.
2. The pandemic discouraged potential buyers from listing homes last year. As a result, inventories fell sharply, limiting choices for buyers at a time low mortgage rates were encouraging fence sitters to start looking.
3. New home builders were caught flat-footed by surging demand and have struggled to catch up. Moreover, soaring lumber prices have caused added delays. Notably, the price of lumber fell sharply in June but remains about double the pre-pandemic price (CNBC).
4. The Wall Street Journal reported in April that the pandemic set in motion a furious scramble to buy vacation homes. In January 2020, 9% of mortgage applications came from investors and those wanting a second home. That rose to 14% last February.
5. On a related note, investors chasing yield have snapped up houses renting them and nibbling away at supply. These investors aren’t simply mom and pop landlords. The Wall Street Journal said pension funds are also buying homes they plan to rent.
6. Mortgage forbearance has helped keep people in their home, pre-venting a flood of foreclosures.
7. Potential sellers who want to move fear a quick house sale could leave them without a home to buy; therefore, they choose to stay put, further limiting the supply of houses.

Surging prices bring up the next question: are we in a bubble as we were in the 2000s?

We are seeing sales come off the early 2021 peak simply because high prices are discouraging some buyers. But limited inventories seem likely to support prices in the short term, even if today’s outsized gains are unsustainable.

Still, unlike the bubble during the 2000s, we aren’t seeing a building boom with large numbers of speculators chasing up prices. Just the opposite, there are not enough homes to satisfy demand.

Moody’s Analytics noted last month, “Stress lines are developing as…house prices have substantially outstripped household incomes, effective rents, and construction costs.”

But Moody’s added, “A bubble develops when there is speculation, or when buyers are purchasing homes with the intent of selling quickly for a profit. This isn’t what is happening in today’s housing market,” as house flipping remains low.

 

Nonetheless, the bubble question is tough to answer simply because forecasting the future involves inputting unknown future variables into an imperfect forecasting model.

The table of returns highlights the major market averages added to gains in Q2, as strong economic growth, strong profit growth, low interest rates, Fed bond buys, falling daily Covid cases, and the reopening of the economy aid stocks.

Notably, long-term Treasury yields fell in Q2, which suggests that investors may be accepting the Fed’s line that the recent burst in inflation is temporary. It could also suggest that economic growth is set to peak inQ2, as fiscal stimulus wanes.

If you have any questions or want to discuss any other matters, please feel free to reach out to your advisor.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

A Four-Letter Word Called Inflation

Most have heard the question, “Is too much of a good thing, still a good thing?” Early in the year, Treasury bond yields were rising in reaction to congressional generosity. You know, trillions and trillions of dollars of stimulus cash being pumped into the economy.

The cash has aided the economic recovery, and stocks have reacted favorably. Today, however, too much money is generating a new concern: inflation.

 

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rose at its fastest monthly pace in 40 years, up 0.9% in April see Figure 1. Add food and energy into the mix and the CPI increased a worrisome 0.8%.

What the consumer does is important because consumer outlays account for nearly 70% of GDP, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data.

Admittedly, inflation worries have popped up before. “Inflation Rears Its Ugly Head Once Again” was a March 2008 Wall Street Journal headline.

Today, economists are debating whether the recent flare-up is temporary and tied to the reopening of the economy and pent-up demand or something more ominous that would eventually force the Federal Reserve to jack up interest rates.

Fed officials have repeatedly insisted that today’s jump in prices is “transitory,” their preferred word of choice. What does transitory mean? It simply means temporary.

 

That may turn out to be the case, but let’s dig a little bit deeper.

Policymakers are finding out that it is easier to fuel the demand side of the economy (consumers and businesses buying goods) than get the productive side of the economy, which generates that supply of goods, back on its feet.

Using a very broad overview, Figure 2 helps explain what’s happening. The demand for goods has surged thanks largely to fiscal stimulus, but the production of goods has lagged badly.

Imports have made up some of the difference, hitting a record high in March per U.S. Census data. Still, a tight supply of some goods is pushing up prices. It’s the classic case of supply and demand as the economy reopens.

Recent headlines shine a light on the problem. A May 13^th story in the Wall Street Journal, “Empty Lots, Angry Customers: Semiconductor Crisis(Shortages) Throws Wrench into Car Business”, sums up what’s happening in the auto industry.

 

Or here is another look from a May 11^th CNBC feature: “U.S. Faces Major Shortages in Everything from Labor to Semiconductors, Lumber, and Packaging Material”.

Problems are especially acute in housing.

The National Association of Homebuilders said that lumber shortages are leading to skyrocketing lumber prices, adding an average of $36,000 to the cost of new home in one year.

Where might we be headed? Congress is debating infrastructure and big new spending bills. There is still plenty of fuel in the tank to support consumer spending, and the Fed insists its easy money policy won’t be changed anytime soon.

Further, it is unknown when supply-side bottlenecks might clear or whether labor shortages may fuel wage increases that get tacked on to retail prices.

Yet, disinflationary demographic trends that predate the Covid crisis remain in place. The same could be said of globalization, though less so than in recent years. Plus, labor unions no longer have the power to exact inflationary wage hikes as they did in the 1970s.

Besides, a burdensome rise in inflation would probably be met by a quicker response from the Fed than what we saw a generation ago.

Inflation is not a four-letter word, but it might as well be. A repeat of the1970s is an unwanted outcome. However, the low inflation of the last decade is unlikely to be matched over the medium term.

If you have any questions or want to discuss any other matters, please feel free to reach out to your advisor.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

A Robust Economic Rebound

It’s been one year since the Covid pandemic pushed the economy off a cliff. Fast forward to today. What a difference a year makes. The economy has roared back. Some sectors have benefited enormously, while others have lagged.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the largest gauge of goods and services in the economy, slowed in Q4 from Q3’s record annualized pace of 33.4%, but it accelerated in Q1 to a 6.4% annualized pace—see Figure 1.

Successful rollout of the vaccines, fewer restrictions on businesses, and stimulus money contributed to Q1’s upbeat pace. Breaking down some of the numbers, consumer spending jumped 10.7% in Q1 versus a more subdued 2.3% in the final quarter of last year.

What the consumer does is important because consumer outlays account for nearly 70% of GDP, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data.

However, consumer outlays have been distorted by the pandemic, as Figure 2 illustrates.

Spending on durable goods, which is generally defined as purchases designed to last at least three years, such as autos or home appliances, surged in Q1. Big-ticket items have benefited enormously from stimulus checks.

Yet, services continue to lag. Note the steep decline in Q2 2020 for services amid widespread restrictions on sectors that rely heavily on person-to-person interactions. The cash was available, but the transmission mechanism between consumers and business was blocked.

Where might we be headed? Economic forecasting is inexact. While the strong stock market rally indicates investors sniffed out the economic rebound over the last year, most forecasters were far more pessimistic.

A resurgence in the virus could put a damper on the rest of the year, but “excess savings” may be set to drive activity for much of 2021. It’s one reason investors have pushed the major stock market averages higher.

 

Moody’s Analytics defines excess saving as savings “above what households would have saved if the pandemic had not occurred, and their savings behavior had been the same as in 2019.”

In other words, it’s the extra cash that was squirreled away as we curtailed spending amid lockdowns and social distancing restrictions on various businesses.

As of the first quarter of 2021, Moody’s estimates that excess savings around the world is over 6% of global GDP. The U.S. has the world’s highest rate of excess savings, equal to 12% of GDP, or $2.6 trillion. Stimulus checks, paycheck protection loans, and very generous jobless benefits have all contributed to the stockpiling of cash.

We see it in the elevated savings rate—see Figure 3.

Might the savings rate eventually settle at an elevated rate? It’s possible, but it’s cash that seems set to power growth as the economy reopens.

If you have any questions or want to discuss any other matters, please feel free to reach out to your advisor.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

Looking Back—One Year Later

It has been one year since the World Health Organization declared the Covid outbreak a pandemic. If we travel back to March 2020, we were bracing for lockdowns, shelter-in-place restrictions, and traveling to the grocery store to stock up on staples.

 

The jolt to the economy and fear of Covid led to the steepest downturn in economic activity that’s ever been recorded. The lion’s share of the damage occurring in Q2, which saw a record 31.4% annualized drop in GDP (U.S. BEA—quarterly records date back to 1947).

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index lost 34% of its value in a little over one month, according to S&P 500 data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

With uncharacteristic speed, the Federal Reserve jumped into action, announcing a host of new programs. Its response went well beyond the 2008 financial crisis.

The Federal government quickly passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which provided generous jobless benefits, stimulus checks, paycheck protection loans, and more.

Investors reacted to the generosity and anticipated a robust economic recovery. By the end of August, the S&P 500 Index surpassed its February high (St. Louis Federal Reserve data).

In Q3, GDP rose a record 33.4%. A new relief package was passed at the end of December, and a much costlier bill, the American Rescue Plan Act, was signed into law last month. While the $1.9 trillion bill price tag has led to criticism, it will send a tsunami of money into the economy.

 

Nonetheless, the pandemic has created economic distortions that have yet to dissipate. The trend towards online buying has accelerated, and big box retailers that were deemed essential have excelled.

Though we are seeing progress, some service-related industries have struggled to adapt to the new normal and remain well below pre-pandemic output.

Government support and U.S. economic resilience

The rollout of the vaccines, trillions of dollars being injected into the economy, and very low interest rates have supported economic grow hand helped fuel the stock market rally over the last year.

Since bottoming on March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 Index has gained an astounding 77.58% through March 31, 2021. Figure 2 highlights the performance of the longest running bull markets since WWII.

After one year, today’s bull market is just ahead of the one-year performance of the last bull run, which began in March 2009. But it’s important to point out that a fast start is not always indicative of future performance.

The long-running bull market of the 1990s was ranked last after the first year.

 

Where are we headed from here? Much will depend on the economy, corporate profits, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and inflation. They have historically been the key drivers of stocks.

The Fed raised its outlook in March, boosting its 2021 GDP forecast from December’s estimate of 4.2% to a fast-paced 6.5%. The rollout of the vaccines and new government money are largely responsible for the outlook, though I must caution, as most economists missed the strong rebound, forecasts are simply educated estimates.

Still, the economic outlook is favorable based on today’s information.

Reviewing second-year S&P 500 performance from bull markets that were born out of a bear market that registered at least a 30% decline: +17%average return in the second year, including a 10% peak-to-trough decline(LPL Research; past performance is no guarantee of future results).

While the fundamentals have been favorable, never rule out the possibility of volatility.

If you have any questions or want to discuss any other matters, please let us know.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

Too Much of a Good Thing? Treasury Yields Rise

The Federal Reserve is in no mood to raise interest rates. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections suggests that its key short-term lending rate, the fed funds rate, could remain near zero through the end of 2023.

The Fed is not worried about inflation and continues to use a wide array of tools, including bond buys and low rates, to encourage economic growth and get people back to work.

Moreover, Congress is intent on passing another large relief package that will include putting more money into the hands of consumers and the unemployed via stimulus checks and an extension of generous unemployment benefits.

Is too much of a good thing a good thing?

Twentieth century film star Mae West playfully remarked, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” But is it?

Interest rates are low, the economy is growing, and there is plenty of cash in the financial system. Further, Congress appears ready to pass another big package.

 

The combination has supported the economy and helped fuel gains in the stock market. However, Treasury bond yields are beginning to react. Since the Fed is pledging to keep rates low, why are longer-term Treasury yields moving higher as illustrated in Figure 1?

First, the Fed can control short-term rates, but can only hope to influence longer-term yields through commentary by Fed officials and its own guidance. But other factors play a role in long-term yields, too.

For starters,

• While uncertainty persists, sentiment suggests that U.S. economic growth will accelerate this year, which reduces the attractiveness of safer Treasury bonds (Treasury yields and bond prices move in the opposite direction). The average 2021 forecast for Gross Domestic Product per a survey of economists by Moody’s Analytics is 6.1%.
• Investors are beginning to fear that too much fiscal stimulus could push inflation higher, which reduces the appeal of fixed income investments. Money supply growth of 25% last year is the fastest in over 60 years (St. Louis Federal Reserve). It is also raising inflation concerns. It would be the classic case of too much money chasing too few goods.
• The Fed’s insistence that it will keep short-term interest rates low for a long period may also be lifting inflation fears amid worries the economy could overheat and push up prices.

One gauge investors use to measure inflation expectations is the 10-Year Breakeven Rate, which provides an estimate as to the level of annual inflation investors expect over the next 10 years.

While the rate of inflation probably has an upward bias this year, that doesn’t mean an unwanted rise in prices is on the horizon. Besides, accurately forecasting inflation over the long term is dicey at best since the inflation-forecasting equation has many moving parts.

Bottom line
Yields on corporate bonds have risen at a more modest pace so far. And both corporate and Treasury yields remain at a historically low level.

In some respects, the rise in Treasury yields is a sign of confidence in the economic outlook. But investors are also trying to discount an uptick in inflation amid a very easy monetary policy and very generous government stimulus.

Moreover, Congress is intent on passing another large relief package that will include putting more money into the hands of consumers and the unemployed via stimulus checks and an extension of generous unemployment benefits.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

Drama on Wall Street

The major market indexes have had a very strong run since bottoming last March. We saw some uncertainty early in the fall heading into the election, but the bitter contest is over. With the announcement of vaccines and new fiscal stimulus, stocks roared to new highs.

Moreover, low interest rates, monthly Federal Reserve bond buys, better-than-expected corporate profits, and a growing economy have added to favorable sentiment.

Yet, euphoria can sometimes breed too much euphoria, which can create conditions that can lead to unexpected volatility.

Revenge of the nerds

Last week, a few stocks that had been heavily shorted by hedge funds (shorting is a risky way to profit if a stock falls in price), soared in price as young speculators used social media chat rooms to encourage purchases and snare professionals in a money-losing trap. It’s a populist and profit motive for these chatroom traders.

The stock that received the most attention was GameStop (GME), a struggling video game retailer that’s been heavily shorted (CNBC, MarketWatch) by the professionals. GameStop was selling below $20 per share in early January but peaked at over $480 on January 28, according to price data from Yahoo Finance. GameStop closed at $325 on January 29.

Why have a few names created volatility? There are fears that hedge funds being squeezed might be forced to sell other stocks and raise cash.

Fed Chief Jerome Powell was asked about market action at last week’s press conference, which followed the first Fed meeting of the year.

Powell declined to comment on specific firms, but opined that recent fiscal policy and vaccines were responsible for market gains since November, not easy Fed policy, i.e., low interest rates.

Low rates and Fed bond buys, economic growth, better-than-expected corporate profits, fiscal stimulus, and the new vaccines have all fueled the rally. Mix in social media, an Internet-driven insurgency, and zero-commission trading, and unexpected volatility surfaced last week.

Volatility can happen for any number of reasons. A 10% market correction can never be ruled out. Still, the economic fundamentals that lifted stocks over the last year remain in place.

How might the drama end?

Most professionals believe it will end when most short sellers have given up and have closed out their positions, or regulators or brokers intervene. At that point, we could see a sharp selloff in GameStop and other companies hyped by the chatroom crowd. But might young traders target new, heavily shorted stocks? Might this turn into a new phenomenon we must adapt to?

Longer term, economic fundamentals and economic activity determine stock prices.

As billionaire investor Leon Cooperman said on CNBC late last month, “At the end of the day, the stock market reflects economic progress or the lack thereof. Water seeks its own level.”

Growth moderates in the fourth quarter

The U.S. BEA reported that Gross Domestic Product, which is the largest measure of economic output, slowed from Q3’s record annualized pace of 33.4% to 4.0% in Q4—see Figure 1.

Historically, 4% is solid, but we saw a significant moderation in consumer spending, as the surge in new U.S. Covid cases late last year played a big role in restricting activity. Business investment and housing, however, helped drive overall growth.

In December, nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000. This included a loss of 372,000 jobs in the restaurant industry, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In other words, one industry more than offset job gains in the rest of the economy.

Various surveys of manufacturing and the broad-based service sector suggest that economic growth sped up in January. In particular, Markit Economics, which surveys the economic landscape, said U.S. manufacturing in January accelerated at its fastest pace since it began publishing its index.

Rising Covid cases late last year have hampered overall growth. While new cases have slowed per Johns Hopkins data, they remain elevated. And the risk from new strains is adding to uncertainty.

However, fiscal stimulus is in the pipeline, additional government stimulus is on the table, and a high savings rate seem set to send a mountain of cash into the economy this year.

Ultimately, the rollout and success of the new vaccines will play an important role in driving economic confidence in the months ahead.

One final note on last week’s action: When volatility strikes, even seasoned investors sometimes consider changes to well-diversified financial plans. Over the longer term, relying on time-tested investment principles and avoiding decisions based on short-term market gyrations have historically led to the best outcome.

If you have any questions or want to discuss any other matters, please feel free to reach out to your advisor.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2021
Everspire
All rights reserved

Never Bet Against America

2020 tested America like no other year. It was as if the perfect storm made landfall and washed across the continent. The Covid pandemic, the shutdown of the economy, a presidential election, fires and hurricanes, and civil disobedience.

Yet, as the economy was near the bottom, investment legend Warren Buffett reiterated, “Never bet against America.” We won’t forget this year, but optimism is embedded in our DNA.

Let’s quickly look at some stats. The shuttering of the economy early in the year led to the steepest quarterly decline in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on record, according to the U.S. BEA. Economic growth in the following quarter rebounded at the fastest pace on record.

Despite a vicious market selloff in March, stocks recovered and set new highs.

“For Many Big Businesses, 2020 Was a Surprisingly Good Year,” so said a December 18th story in the Wall Street Journal. We see it reflected in equities.

We counsel that market pullbacks are a natural part of the investing landscape, though we acknowledge that the 33.9% peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 occurred in only one month.

Yet, let’s take a moment to review Figure 2.

Since 1980, the average annual intra-year pullback in the S&P 500 has been 14.2%; yet, the S&P 500 has averaged a 13% advance each year (including dividends).

Here are some additional data points. From 1980 to 2020 (41 years), there have been:

• 7 down years, with the average decline during a down year of  13.1%
• 34 up years, with the average increase during an up year of +18.4%
  The only time we’ve had back-to-back declines was 2000-2002 (stock bubble bursting).
• 21 out of 41 years, we’ve had pullbacks of 10% or more, or an average of every 1.95 years.
• 6 of the 41 years saw pullbacks of 20% or more, or an average of every 6.83 years.

Figure 2 illustrates the long-term upward bias in stocks.

Changes in sentiment can force stocks lower over shorter periods, but favorable economic fundamentals have helped fuel longer-term gains.

A review

The economic shutdown triggered the first bear market since the 2008 financial crisis. But there were two important catalysts that helped fuel the subsequent rally.

First, the Federal Reserve went far beyond measures announced during 2008. Second, Congress passed the $2 trillion CARES Act, which provided generous benefits for the unemployed, while aiding households, and small and larger businesses.

The CARES Act and the Fed couldn’t prevent the worst quarterly decline in GDP we’ve ever experienced, but it helped set the stage for a sharp economic rebound in Q3.

Record low interest rates, coupled with economic growth, played a big role in the market’s rally.

Still, the pandemic created distortions in behavior. Technology performed admirably, and you see it reflected in the outperformance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Autos, home improvement, online retailers, streaming services, housing, and big box retailers deemed to be essential did very well during the pandemic.

However, oil and gas, mom and pop outfits, and traditional department stores suffered.

The same could be said of businesses that rely on person-to-person interactions, including movie theaters, sporting events, restaurants, concerts, air travel, and hotels.

It has been the tale of two economies.

A look ahead

While cautious optimism prevails, the path of the economy is likely to depend on the course of the virus. The likelihood that vaccines will be widely available by June could provide a significant boost to sectors hit hard by social distancing. But distribution of the vaccines must accelerate soon.

Just as investors sniffed out the robust Q3 economic recovery, record highs in December suggest we’ll see further improvement next year, though expect the recovery to be uneven.

Of course, there are always risks.

The Fed is unlikely to lift short-term rates in the new year. But could investors be too complacent regarding bond yields, which many believe are expected to remain low in 2021?

Could inflation unexpectedly rise amid the heavy injections of fiscal stimulus and cash into the economy? And when stocks are priced for perfection, unexpected bad news can create volatility.

Investor’s corner

There are many factors outside of anyone’s control—particularly market forces. At Everspire we humbly acknowledge this reality and plan accordingly. Humility in this instance makes us stronger. We choose to have laser focus on the items within our control. Our devotion to financial planning has protected fortunes from being lost, turned lifelong dreams into realities, avoided postponing opportunities that may never have returned, and provided peace of mind in a world that can appear to be in complete disharmony.

We are forever grateful and humbled that you have entrusted Everspire with your confidence. We do not take your trust lightly and look forward to a prosperous 2021.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2020
Financial Jumble, LLC
Everspire
All rights reserved

An Election and Vaccines

A bitter election has ended. Some are jubilant, some are bitterly disappointed. Both candidates had avid followers, while others voted for what they might call “the lesser of two evils.”

As I’ve said in the past, I’m not a political pundit. My top priority is to be your financial advisor. Therefore, let’s cautiously review the recent contest through the eyes of a dispassionate investor who stays on the political sidelines.

Regardless of political preference, a big unknown has been removed. Ominous predictions of civil disruptions were not fulfilled and uncertainty has been replaced by a degree of certainty.

Figure 1 highlights S&P 500 Index3 performance broken down by the party that holds the White House and by Congressional makeup. For example, if Congress is divided and a Democrat is in the White House, the S&P 500 averaged a 15.9% annual return since 1950.

Note that markets have a long-term upward bias and typically move forward whether a Democrat or Republican has held the White House.

While two Georgia runoffs in January will determine which party captures the Senate, investors believe Republicans will probably prevail. This is being viewed favorably. Why? A united government under a Biden presidency would likely mean a big stimulus package, which would be viewed as a positive for investors. Yet, so far, a compromise on fiscal stimulus has been elusive, and investors have yet to express much displeasure.

On trade, it’s unlikely that we will fully return to pre-Trump policies, while a greater degree of stability and predictability on trade and tariffs is seen as beneficial to markets.

On taxes, investors have warmed to the prospect of gridlock and divided government, which would likely make passing significant tax increases and a big hike in the corporate tax rate more difficult.

Divided government would also reduce odds of more burdensome regulatory environment, though we may see new initiatives via executive orders.

Inoculating the economy

Stocks also received a strong jolt from the news that Pfizer (PFE $38) and Moderna (MRNA $152) have announced separate COVID-19 vaccines that are nearly 95% effective.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the FDA and a member of Pfizer’s board of directors, said last month in a CNBC interview that with the vaccines “We could effectively end this pandemic in 2021.”

Despite the rise in Covid cases this fall and tighter restrictions around the nation, the major indexes had a stellar November, as investors looked past shorter-term challenges and focused instead on technological breakthroughs that may slow or end the pandemic.

Still, the short-term economic outlook is uncertain, and growth in economic activity has slowed from Q3’s record rebound. If a safe and effective vaccine encourages people to fly, enjoy vacations, return to restaurants, attend movies and theaters, and frequent sporting events, a significant roadblock to economic activity would be removed.

We have seen sharp increases in spending on goods and autos, according to U.S. Census data, but the same data also show that spending on businesses that require person-to-person interactions remains well below pre-Covid levels.

Stocks may still face bouts of volatility. With the major averages hitting new highs last month, any bit of disappointing news can encourage short-term traders to hit the sell button.

But tailwinds to stocks remain in place, including low interest rates, a very accommodative Federal Reserve, and the general belief that the economy will expand next year.

If you have any concerns, my door is always open. Please continue to adhere to social distancing and safety protocols, and please stay safe.

¹ The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

² The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

³ The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁴ The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁵ CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

⁶ CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

It is important that you do not use this e-mail to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed.

All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.

Stocks and bonds and commodities are not FDIC insured and can fall in value, and any investment information, securities and commodities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for everyone.

U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.

The information contained is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals.

All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions.

Copyright © 2020
Financial Jumble, LLC
Everspire
All rights reserved